Model selection and model averaging in behavioural ecology: the utility of the IT-AIC framework

Behavioural ecologists often study complex systems in which multiple hypotheses could be proposed to explain observed phenomena. For some systems, simple controlled experiments can be employed to reveal part of the complexity; often, however, observational studies that incorporate a multitude of causal factors may be the only (or preferred) avenue of study. We assess the value of recently advocated approaches to inference in both contexts. Specifically, we examine the use of information theoretic (IT) model selection using Akaike’s information criterion (AIC). We find that, for simple analyses, the advantages of switching to an IT-AIC approach are likely to be slight, especially given recent emphasis on biological rather than statistical significance. By contrast, the model selection approach embodied by IT approaches offers significant advantages when applied to problems of more complex causality. Model averaging is an intuitively appealing extension to model selection. However, we were unable to demonstrate consistent improvements in prediction accuracy when using model averaging with IT-AIC; our equivocal results suggest that more research is needed on its utility. We illustrate our arguments with worked examples from behavioural experiments.     

Ecological impacts on the limpet Lottia gigantea populations: human pressure over a broad scale on island and mainland intertidal zones

Here long-term monitoring data taken at 33 sites in southern and central California coast and islands were used to evaluate the size structure of the large intertidal limpet, Lottia gigantea in restricted-access and in easily accessible intertidal zones that encompass a wide range of ecological variables. Using multi-dimensional analysis of population size structures, we found that sites on islands and strictly protected mainland sites have significantly larger median limpet sizes and a greater range of limpet sizes than unprotected mainland sites, while no pattern occurs in latitudinal or regional comparison of sites. Although intertidal predators such as oystercatchers were not the primary focus of the monitoring efforts, extensive natural history notes taken during sampling visits support the argument that predation was not a primary cause for the size structure differences. Finally, substratum differences were determined not to have biased the observation of larger limpets in protected sites. In regard to human interactions with limpets, we conclude that the degree of enforcement against poaching is the better predictor of limpet size structure than proximity to population centers or visitation to intertidal sites.     

Synthetic fibers as an indicator of land application of sludge

Synthetic fabric fibers have been proposed as indicators of past spreading of wastewater sludge. Synthetic fiber detectability was examined in sludges (dewatered, pelletized, composted, alkaline-stabilized) and in soils from experimental columns and field sites applied with those sludge products. Fibers (isolated by water extraction and examined using polarized light microscopy) were detectable in sludge products and in soil columns over 5 years after application, retaining characteristics observed in the applied sludge. Concentrations mirrored (within a factor of 2) predictions based on soil dilution. Fibers were detectable in field site soils up to 15 years after application, again retaining the characteristics seen in sludge products. Concentrations correlated with residual sludge metal concentration gradients in a well-characterized field site. Fibers found along preferential flow paths and/or in horizons largely below the mixed layer suggest some potential for translocation. Synthetic fibers were shown to be rapid and semi-quantitative indicators of past sludge application.     

Oviposition by small hive beetles elicits hygienic responses from Cape honeybees

Two novel behaviours, both adaptations of small hive beetles (Aethina tumida Murray) and Cape honeybees (Apis mellifera capensis Esch.), are described. Beetles puncture the sides of empty cells and oviposit under the pupae in adjoining cells. However, bees detect this ruse and remove infested brood (hygienic behaviour), even under such well-disguised conditions. Indeed, bees removed 91% of treatment brood (brood cells with punctured walls caused by beetles) but only 2% of control brood (brood not exposed to beetles). Only 91% of treatment brood actually contained beetle eggs; the data therefore suggest that bees remove only that brood containing beetle eggs and leave uninfected brood alone, even if beetles have accessed (but not oviposited on) the brood. Although this unique oviposition strategy by beetles appears both elusive and adaptive, Cape honeybees are able to detect and remove virtually all of the infested brood.     

Significance of Atmospheric Ozone as a Phytotoxicant

Since the recognition of ozone as a major phytotoxicant in crop plants in 1957, ozone type symptoms have been observed in a wide range of vegetation. These observations include leafy vegetables, field, forage, and textile crops, also shrubs, broad-leafed ornamental, fruit and forest trees, and various conifers. Fumigation experiments at various institutions have confirmed the etiological relation of ozone in many of these observations. Such visible injuries fail to provide a reliable index to the damaging impact of ozone on the numerous plants affected. Hidden injury or damage by ozone at sub-necrotic levels has been reported and experimentally established in a number of crop plants. Evidence is available which indicats that citrus varieties are so affected, and that much of the citrus decline in Southern California may be ozone induced. Photochemically induced ozone may prove to be the most persistent, if not the most difficult, of atmospheric phytotoxicants to control. Ozone type injury has been reported from eighteen different states, and from Canada to Japan.     

Assessing the strength of climate and land-use influences on montane epiphyte communities

Epiphytes, air plants that are structurally dependent on trees, are a keystone group in tropical forests; they support the food and habitat needs of animals and influence water and nutrient cycles. They reach peak diversity in humid montane forests. Climate predictions for Central American mountains include increased temperatures, altered precipitation seasonality, and increased cloud base heights, all of which may challenge epiphytes. Although remaining montane forests are highly fragmented, many tropical agricultural systems include trees that host epiphytes, allowing epiphyte communities to persist even in landscapes with lower forest connectivity. I used structural equations models to test the relative effects of climate, land use, tree characteristics, and biotic interactions on vascular epiphyte diversity with data from 31 shade coffee farms and 2 protected forests in northern Nicaragua. I also tested substrate preferences of common species with randomization tests. Tree size, tree diversity, and climate all affected epiphyte richness, but the effect of climate was almost entirely mediated by bryophyte cover. Bryophytes showed strong sensitivity to mean annual temperature and insolation. Many ferns and some orchids were positively associated with bryophyte mats, whereas bromeliads tended to establish among lichen or on bare bark. The tight relationships between bryophytes and climate and between bryophytes and vascular epiphytes indicated that relatively small climate changes could result in rapid, cascading losses of montane epiphyte communities. Currently, shade coffee farms can support high bryophyte cover and diverse vascular epiphyte assemblages when larger, older trees are present. Agroforests serve as valuable reservoirs for epiphyte biodiversity and may be important early-warning systems as the climate changes.     

Pesticide occurrence in groundwater and the physical characteristics in association with these detections in Ireland

This study explores the associations of pesticide occurrence in groundwater to geological characteristics of the monitoring points (MPs) contributing area. Pesticide analyses were undertaken during a 2-year groundwater monitoring campaign which generated 845 samples. MCPA and mecoprop were the most frequently detected pesticides in groundwater. Each MP (n?=?158) had a specifically delineated zone of contribution (ZOC) and the dominant physical characteristics present from nine national datasets were recorded for each ZOC. Associations between detections in groundwater and the dominant physical characteristic in each MPs ZOC tested were then statistically analyzed using Fisher’s exact test, logistic regression, and multiple logistic regression. The original physical characteristic datasets used that were associated with detections in groundwater were the type of MP, aquifer type, and Quaternary deposit type. Logistic regression revealed that springs, regionally important aquifer types, aquifers with a karstic flow regime, and alkaline Quaternary deposits in existence above karst aquifers in a MP’s ZOC were more likely to have a pesticide detection in groundwater. Multiple regression from this exploratory work showed some mutual dependency between soil association, aquifer type, and the Geological Survey of Ireland groundwater vulnerability map. The combination of national monitoring data and physical attribute datasets can be used to explore key areas where groundwater is more vulnerable to pesticide contamination.     

Biodegradation and flushing of MBT wastes

Mechanical–biological treatment (MBT) processes are increasingly being adopted as a means of diverting biodegradable municipal waste (BMW) from landfill, for example to comply with the EU Landfill Directive. However, there is considerable uncertainty concerning the residual pollution potential of such wastes. This paper presents the results of laboratory experiments on two different MBT waste residues, carried out to investigate the remaining potential for the generation of greenhouse gases and the flushing of contaminants from these materials when landfilled. The potential for gas generation was found to be between 8% and 20% of that for raw MSW. Pretreatment of the waste reduced the potential for the release of organic carbon, ammoniacal nitrogen, and heavy metal contents into the leachate; and reduced the residual carbon remaining in the waste after final degradation from ～320 g/kg dry matter for raw MSW to between 183 and 195 g/kg dry matter for the MBT wastes.     

Bioaccessibility of metals in soils and dusts contaminated by marine antifouling paint particles

Fragments of antifouling paint and environmental geosolids have been sampled from the island of Malta and analysed for total and bioaccessible metals. Total concentrations of Ba, Cd, Cu, Pb, Sn and Zn were two to three orders of magnitude higher in spent antifouling composites relative to respective values in background soils and road dusts. Paint fragments were visible in geosolids taken from the immediate vicinity of boat maintenance facilities and mass balance calculations, based on Ba as a paint tracer, suggested that the most contaminated soils, road dusts and boatyard dusts contained about 1%, 7% and 9%, respectively, of antifouling particles. Human bioaccessibilities of metals were evaluated in selected samples using a physiologically based extraction technique. Accessibilities of Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn in the most contaminated solids were sufficient to be cause for concern for individuals working in the boat repair industry and to the wider, local community.